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Winter heating costs 2026–27: EIA's forecast, fuel by fuel
In its Winter Fuels Outlook (October 2026), EIA forecasts what the average U.S. household will spend on its main heating fuel from November through March — and the winter splits by fuel. Homes heating with natural gas are forecast to spend $640 (−9% versus last winter) and propane homes $1,246 (−3%), while electric-heated homes face $1,196 (+4%) and heating-oil homes $2,115 (+21%). Every figure on this page is from that outlook, named as a forecast — not a bill, and not a promise.
| Main heating fuel | Forecast Nov–Mar total | Vs last winter | January (peak month) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | $640 | −9% | $146 |
| Electricity | $1,196 | +4% | $270 |
| Propane | $1,246 | −3% | $302 |
| Heating oil | $2,115 | +21% | $509 |
EIA's monthly path matters as much as the total: spending peaks in January for every fuel. The full U.S. monthly forecast — gas $111 / $140 / $146 / $128 / $116; electricity $213 / $253 / $270 / $230 / $230; propane $201 / $274 / $302 / $251 / $218; heating oil $360 / $465 / $509 / $420 / $361 (November through March).
The forecast describes the average home. Your winter depends on your fuel, your state’s prices, and your usage — run your own kWh, therms, and gallons at published average rates.
Open the energy cost calculatorThe forecast by region
EIA also publishes the outlook by Census region, and the regional spreads are wide — a gas-heated home in the Northeast is forecast to spend $879 for the season against $511 in the South, mostly because it burns more gas in a colder climate.
| Main heating fuel | Northeast | Midwest | South | West | U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | $879 (−14%) | $613 (−10%) | $511 (−15%) | $590 (+7%) | $640 (−9%) |
| Electricity | $1,637 (−3%) | $1,380 (+3%) | $1,079 (+3%) | $1,151 (+9%) | $1,196 (+4%) |
| Propane | $1,687 (−15%) | $1,305 (−4%) | $1,164 (0%) | — | $1,246 (−3%) |
| Heating oil | — | — | — | — | $2,115 (+21%) |
EIA does not publish a regional split for heating-oil expenditures in this outlook, and no West figure for propane — the dashes mark figures EIA does not publish, not zeroes. Percentages are EIA's, versus winter 2025–26.
The prices underneath the forecast
Spending is price times consumption, and this winter the price side does most of the moving. EIA forecasts average winter prices of $13.44 per Mcf for residential natural gas (−9%), 18.23¢ per kWh for residential electricity (+3%), $2.52 per gallon for propane (−2%), and $5.26 per gallon for heating oil (+34%) — with oil's monthly price forecast to ease from $5.79 in November to $4.84 in March even as January consumption peaks. Forecast consumption is comparatively flat: about 48 Mcf of gas, 6,562 kWh of electricity, and 494 gallons of propane for the average home using each fuel.
How to use a forecast honestly
- It is a base case, not a bill. EIA builds the outlook on a weather forecast close to last winter nationally; it publishes colder and warmer side cases because a single cold snap rewrites the numbers — above all for delivered fuels bought at spot prices.
- Electricity's figure is a whole-season electric bill for homes whose main heat is electric — lights, refrigeration, and everything else on the meter are in it, which is why it is not directly comparable row-by-row with the fuel-only rows.
- Your state can move the other way. These are national and regional averages. Your own winter is your fuel, your state’s prices — in our state guides — and your home’s usage. New England homes can stress-test the regional rows on the New England page.
Sources: EIA — Winter Fuels Outlook, October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (published October 6, 2026). Researched October 2026 — energy prices move with seasons and markets; confirm the current rate on your own bill.
Related guides
Heating oil prices by state · Propane prices by state · Natural gas prices by state · The average utility bill, broken down