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Heat pump vs gas furnace: the cost of a million Btu of heat
Heating systems are priced in different units — cents per kWh, dollars per Mcf, dollars per gallon — so the honest comparison converts every fuel to the same yardstick: what a million Btu (MMBtu) of heat delivered into your home costs. At EIA's U.S. average prices, the fuel itself costs $48.30 per MMBtu as electricity, $14.00 as natural gas, $29.40 as propane, and $44.69 as heating oil — before the heating system's efficiency has its say. Efficiency is where the heat pump wins its argument, and this page shows both steps with the assumptions labeled.
Step 1: the fuel, priced per million Btu
The conversions use EIA's published heat contents: 1 kWh = 3,412 Btu; 1 cubic foot of natural gas = 1,036 Btu (so 1 Mcf = 1.036 MMBtu); 1 gallon of heating oil = 138,500 Btu; 1 gallon of propane = 91,452 Btu.
| Fuel | Published U.S. average price | Cost per MMBtu of fuel |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity | 16.48¢ per kWh (2024 average) | $48.30 |
| Natural gas | $14.50 per Mcf, delivered (2024 average) | $14.00 |
| Propane | $2.689 per gallon (survey week of Oct 19, 2026) | $29.40 |
| Heating oil | $6.190 per gallon (survey week of Oct 19, 2026) | $44.69 |
| Heating oil (winter forecast) | $5.26 per gallon (EIA Winter Fuels Outlook average) | $37.98 |
Step 2: divide by the system's efficiency
No furnace delivers every Btu it burns, and a heat pump moves more heat than the electricity it consumes. The efficiency figures below are illustrative equipment ratings, not EIA data — EIA publishes fuel prices and heat contents, not appliance efficiencies. AFUE is the share of a fuel's heat that reaches the house; a heat pump's COP is the heat it delivers per unit of electricity (a COP of 3 delivers 3 kWh of heat per kWh consumed, which is why its "efficiency" exceeds 100%).
| Heating system (illustrative rating) | Cost per MMBtu of heat delivered |
|---|---|
| Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE | $17.50 |
| Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE (condensing) | $14.73 |
| Heating oil system, 85% AFUE — at the Oct 2026 survey price | $52.58 |
| Heating oil system, 85% AFUE — at EIA's winter forecast price | $44.68 |
| Propane furnace, 90% AFUE | $32.67 |
| Electric resistance (baseboards, space heaters), 100% | $48.30 |
| Heat pump, COP 2.0 (cold weather / older unit) | $24.15 |
| Heat pump, COP 2.5 | $19.32 |
| Heat pump, COP 3.0 (mild weather / modern unit) | $16.10 |
National averages hide the spread. Price your own kWh and therms at your state’s published average rates and compare systems on your real numbers.
Open the energy cost calculatorWhat the table says — and what it leaves out
Three readings survive every assumption. First, electric resistance is the most expensive heat on this page at the national average price — $48.30 per MMBtu against $17.50 for a standard gas furnace. Second, a heat pump's advantage is arithmetic, not magic: multiplying each electric kWh into 2–3 kWh of heat pulls its delivered cost down to gas-furnace territory ($16.10 at COP 3.0) even where electricity itself is dear per Btu. Third, delivered fuels price heat highest this winter — oil above all, at the survey price in the table.
Your state moves the electric rows a lot and the gas row a little. At North Dakota's 11.51¢ average price, a MMBtu of electricity costs $33.73 before efficiency; at Hawaii's 42.86¢ it costs $125.62. Gas, oil, and propane prices by state are in the gas, oil, and propane guides; EIA's season totals for each fuel are on the winter heating costs page.
What this comparison cannot tell you: equipment and installation prices (EIA does not publish them, and we do not estimate them), how a specific heat pump's COP falls as outdoor temperature drops, duct losses, or your home's heat load. It prices the fuel side of the decision — the side with official numbers — and stops there.
Sources: EIA — Electric Sales, Revenue & Average Price 2024, Table 5A (Form EIA-861) · EIA — Natural Gas Annual 2024, Table 23 (Form EIA-176) · EIA — Heating Oil and Propane Update (week of October 19, 2026) · EIA — Winter Fuels Outlook, October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (published October 6, 2026) · EIA — Energy Explained: British thermal units (conversion factors). Researched October 2026 — energy prices move with seasons and markets; confirm the current rate on your own bill.
Related guides
Winter heating costs 2026–27 · Electricity prices by state · Natural gas prices by state · How much energy a home uses